Clean Hydrogen Output Up 70% but Offtake Growth Stalls at 16%, Report Shows
Ngày 10 tháng 9 năm 2026
Annie Nguyễn, VAHC Secretariat
Clean hydrogen production is scaling rapidly with operational capacity up 70% over the past year, but binding demand growth remains well behind, according to the Hydrogen Council's new Global Hydrogen Compass 2026 report.
The report, developed with McKinsey & Company, found that operational clean hydrogen capacity rose to 1.7 million tonnes per year (mtpa), from 1 mtpa in 2025, with 90% of that growth happening in China.
Growth Forecast
Operational capacity is now projected to more than double again to 3.8 mtpa in 2027, coming from a cohort of projects that reached final investment decision (FID) in 2023.
However, volumes with committed offtake agreements grew just 16% from 3.6 mtpa in 2025 to 4.2 mtpa, with ammonia and refining driving the lion's share of growth.
Committed Capacity
Committed capacity — covering projects at FID, under construction or already operating — also grew a more modest 17% from 5.9 mtpa to 6.9 mtpa across 579 projects over the same period to represent **$130 billion**, up from $110 billion last year.
Those 579 sit within a total project pipeline the Council tracks at 1,948 projects, meaning roughly 30% have converted to committed status — 540 of which are under construction or operational (27.7%).
Timing Effect
The report frames the gap between fast-growing operational capacity and slower committed-pipeline growth as a timing effect rather than a warning sign.
There is a three to four-year lag between FID and delivery, so today's slower pipeline growth reflects investment decisions made years ago, while today's momentum "will not show up in delivered supply until later this decade".
Demand Still Lags
Despite the momentum in production, demand continues to drag. While the report estimates existing policies could "unlock" 11 mtpa of demand by 2030, only 4.2 mtpa has a binding offtake agreement.
Only 6 mtpa of the 11 is considered "firm", backed by policies already enacted, like Europe's Renewable Energy Directive (RED) III transport targets, China's mobility and industrial ecosystems, and awarded subsidies in Japan and Korea.
The remaining 5 mtpa depends on policies announced but not yet implemented, such as the RED III industry targets. Europe holds the largest share of the competitive pool (5.7 mtpa), ahead of China's 2 mtpa, North America's 1.7 mtpa, Japan and Korea's 1.1 mtpa, and India's 0.1 mtpa.
Offtake Concentration
The 4.2 mtpa of volumes covered by binding offtake remains heavily concentrated. Ammonia and refining account for 71% of it and drove nearly all recent growth. North America is currently the largest offtake centre (1.7 mtpa), ahead of Europe (1 mtpa), and China (at least 0.7 mtpa — albeit likely undercounted).
Committed Investment
Total committed investment has topped $130 billion** for 6.9 mtpa of capacity . China remains the biggest market at **$44.5 billion, of which about $12 billion** advanced to FID over the past year. Europe is second with around **$30 billion, over half of which is dedicated to hydrogen end-uses.
Strategic Context
While decarbonization remains a critical global driver, the current momentum is being driven by energy security and hydrogen has become a strategic resilience lever . Over 60% of committed investment is in regions where security and growth match or exceed decarbonization as primary motivations.
Global Hydrogen Compass 2026 — Hydrogen Council & McKinsey & Company
1. Global Overview Metrics
| # | Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global committed investment | $130 billion | Up 18% from $110bn in 2025 |
| 2 | Committed clean hydrogen capacity | 6.9 Mtpa | Up 17% from 5.9 Mtpa |
| 3 | Committed projects | 579 projects | Out of 1,948 total pipeline (~30%) |
| 4 | Operational capacity | 1.7 Mtpa | Up 70% in 12 months |
| 5 | Projected operational capacity 2027 | 3.8 Mtpa | More than double |
| 6 | Binding offtake | 4.2 Mtpa | Up 16% from 3.6 Mtpa |
| 7 | Potential demand 2030 | 11 Mtpa | If all existing policies implemented |
| 8 | Firm demand 2030 | 6 Mtpa | Backed by enacted policies |
| 9 | Yet-to-be-enabled demand 2030 | 5 Mtpa | Requires additional policy implementation |
| 10 | Potential demand 2035 | 18 Mtpa | Mostly yet to be enabled |
2. Regional Breakdown
| Region | Committed investment | Change vs 2025 | Committed capacity | Projects | Key characteristics |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | $45 billion | +$11.8bn | ~1.9 Mtpa | 107 | Leads renewable H₂, >50% globally |
| Europe | $30 billion | +$7.9bn | ~1.0 Mtpa | 232 | Most projects, demand centre |
| North America | $26 billion | +$3.1bn | ~2.9 Mtpa | 92 | Leads low-carbon H₂ (~75%) |
| Middle East | $11 billion | +$0.2bn | ~0.5 Mtpa | 15 | Large-scale, export-oriented |
| Japan/Korea | $7 billion | +$0.4bn | ~40 Ktpa | 52 | Focus on distribution & end-use (>90%) |
| India | $6 billion | +$0.5bn | ~0.3 Mtpa | 31 | Low-cost renewable ammonia |
| Rest of World | $5 billion | +$0.1bn | ~0.1 Mtpa | 50 | Fragmented export projects |
3. 2030 Demand by Region
| Region | Potential demand | Firm demand | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Europe | 5.7 Mtpa | ~2.7 Mtpa | RED III, ETS, CBAM |
| China | 2.0 Mtpa | ~2.0 Mtpa | 15th Five-Year Plan |
| North America | 1.7 Mtpa | ~0.9 Mtpa | 45Q, LCFS |
| Japan/Korea | 1.1 Mtpa | ~0.4 Mtpa | CFD, CHPS |
| India | 0.1 Mtpa | ~0.1 Mtpa | SIGHT, NGHM |
| TOTAL | 11 Mtpa | 6 Mtpa | +5 Mtpa yet to be enabled |
4. Demand by Sector
| Sector | Offtake share | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Ammonia (chemical/fertiliser) | 43% | Leads growth |
| Hydrogen-refining | 28% | Legacy market |
| Power | 9% | Co-firing |
| Methanol & chemical | 7% | Emerging |
| Steel | 5% | Green steel |
| eFuels – Aviation | 5% | eSAF |
| Hydrogen-mobility | 2% | FCEV, trucks |
| Maritime – clean fuels | <1% | Developing |
5. Electrolyser Technology
| Technology | Global | Excl. China | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alkaline | 74% | 48% | Low cost, dominant |
| PEM | 24% | 46% | Flexible, high purity |
| Other | 2% | 6% | SOEC, AEM |
6. Hydrogen Production Costs
| Region | Current | 2030 target |
|---|---|---|
| China | ~$3.5/kg | ~$2/kg |
| India | ~$3/kg | <$2/kg |
| Europe | $5–9/kg | Subsidy-dependent |
7. CEO Priorities
| Priority | Percentage | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Firm demand | 74% | Ranked #1 |
| Implement existing policy | 84% | >70% prefer enforcement over new laws |
| Maintain/increase investment appetite | >70% | Over past 12 months |
8. CEO Regional Momentum
| Region | "Steady/accelerating" | Remarks |
|---|---|---|
| China | 94% | Leads, strong state signals |
| India | 92% | Energy security, NGHM |
| Japan/Korea | 69% | Imports & infrastructure |
| Europe | 64% | Positive signals, slow rollout |
| Middle East | 27% | Awaiting export market |
| North America | 12% | Affected by 45V phaseout |
9. Key Challenges
| Challenge | Description |
|---|---|
| Lack of firm demand | Industry's #1 priority (74% of CEOs) |
| Slow policy implementation | RED III industry, eSAF CFD, maritime |
| US policy uncertainty | 45V phased out 5 years early |
| High costs | Clean H₂ still significantly costlier |
| Infrastructure gaps | Pipelines, ports, reconversion |
| Delivery risk | ~25% of committed capacity operational |
10. 2025 vs 2026 Comparison
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Committed investment | $110bn | $130bn | +18% |
| Committed capacity | 5.9 Mtpa | 6.9 Mtpa | +17% |
| Operational capacity | 1.0 Mtpa | 1.7 Mtpa | +70% |
| Binding offtake | 3.6 Mtpa | 4.2 Mtpa | +16% |
| Committed projects | ~510 | 579 | +69 |
| Firm demand 2030 | — | 6 Mtpa | — |
| Potential demand 2030 | — | 11 Mtpa | — |
Source: Hydrogen Council, Global Hydrogen Compass 2026, September 2026
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